SP 500 Futures

The chart is key to this analysis.

(ESU25) 

ESU25

From 4/7/25

ESM25
The big plunge overnight took it to 23.6% back to the 2009 low at 4850.00.
Here is what is possible on a failure to get back above 38.2% back to the 2022 low at 5153.50 and what to look for if it does.
 

You can use 5153.50 as the swing point for the day and longer term. 
 

This is now 23.6% back to the ATH as well as a major Gann square. Not getting back above this level and taking out 4850.00 can send this market a lot lower. The first target is 61.8% back to the 2022 low at 4515.00, this is also a major Gann square. The longer term target area is 4075.00 to 4036.75, this is 38.2% back to the 2009 low, 78.6% back to the 2022 low and a major Gann square.
Holding 4850.00 and then closing back above 5153.50 would be a very positive sign and a new ATH could eventually follow. As always the first real test will be 38.2% back at 5340.00, a failure to get above here keeps the short term trend negative and a new low can quickly follow. The longer term targets are 61.8% at 5652.00 and then the area of the 5850.25 major Gann square, 78.6% back to the ATH at 5877.00 and the 200 day average at 5896.00.

 ONE44 23.6% rule.

Extremely strong/weak markets will only go back 23.6%. This is Typically a runaway market.

When there are extended runs in the market it is always best to watch 23.6% to see just how strong or weak the market is. This retracement level is not for small ranges. This retracement should be from the lowest low/highest high of the current run to be most effective. You will also look for other retracements to line up with this level using highs and lows closer to the ongoing move.

All of what happened was in the Macro view of this market as it held 23.6% (4850.00) back to the 2009 low on 4/7/25. The rally from there didn't stop at any of the retracements back to the previous ATH and it had only one setback that got back to a retracement below, This was on 4/21/25 when it had one close below 38.2% at 5266.00 and the next day was right back above it. The closest it got to a retracement after that was on 5/23/25 when it held well above 23.6% at 5722.00 and then went on to a new ATH.

NOW

With the market making a new ATH here are the things to look for.
 

Use 6142.00 as the swing point for the week.
 

The most important thing after making a new ATH is that they stay above it, a failure to do so can cause a sharp setback, so this week will be very important to the longer term view.  

Above it, as long as it remains above 6142.00 our new long term target area is 7214.00 to 7230.00, this another cluster of major Gann squares just like the 6102.00 to 6142.00 cluster that sent the market down to 4850.00. Before then there are only major Gann squares to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above. The next three are 6290.75, 6443.00 and 6594.75. 

Below it, getting right back below it can cause a quick selloff and the first target area is 5857.00 to 5850.00, this is the 200 day average, a major Gann square and 23.6% back to the 4/7/25 low. The short term swing point is 38.2% of the same move at 5706.00, this also a major Gann square. The tightest retracement is 38.2% back to the 5/23/25 low at 6055.00, this is the short term target.

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